Gafisa (GFA): Paul Goodwin’s top stock for 2010
"My pick for the top stock of 2010 is Gafisa (NYSE: GFA), a Brazilian homebuilder and developer," says emerging markets specialist Paul Goodwin.
In his Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report, he explains, "This is an experienced growth company in a country with an excellent economic engine." Here's the advisor's review.
"Gafisa has been growing fast and has a huge future. Brazil doesn’t get much publicity in an investing world focused on China, but its economy is also growing at a sustainable 5% a year and it’s a lot less dependent on exports than China.
"Gafisa has completed nearly 1,000 projects and the company is active in 21 of Brazil’s 26 states as it moves outside its traditional markets of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo.
"Brazilian interest rates have been coming down and the middle class is growing—up 24% in just the last four years—which will boost demand for housing.
"Gafisa reported a 358% surge in earnings in Q3 on a 128% jump in revenue and the backlog of developments on the board is strong.
"As for the stock, GFA has made a strong recovery from its late-2008 lows, but the stock’s P/E ratio of 21 is still quite reasonable for a strong growth issue.
"The stock has been trading sideways since August 2009, perambulating in a range with a core of support at 30. It looks like an excellent base for a new rally, and 2010 should see the breakout.
"This is an experienced growth company in a country with an excellent economic engine and the stock pays a small dividend—that’s an attractive package!"
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