John Murphy: DOLLAR RISE HURTS STOCKS AND COMMODITIES — STOCK VOLUME PATTERN TURNS NEGATIVE — NASDAQ AND S&P 500 NEAR POINT & FIGURE SELL SIGNALS — BEAR FUND TURNS UP
I wrote a week ago about the U.S. Dollar Index starting to bounce from major support formed in the spring of 2008 near 22 and an oversold condition. I warned that a dollar rally could unsettle...Carlson’s dividend trio
"One way to build an inflation hedge into your investment cash flows is to focus on stocks that are likely to boost their dividends on a regular basis," explains dividend specialist Chuck Carlson.
In his The DRIP Investor, he notes, "Since dividends are paid with cold cash, they can’t be faked. Either you pay the dividend or you don’t. They can’t be some figment of accounting magic." Here, he looks at three favorite blue chips with strong dividend records.
"The math is simple, but compelling. If your dividend stream can at least keep pace with inflation — and hopefully exceed the inflation rate — your real spending power can be maintained or even increased over time.
"When a company makes a commitment to pay the dividend, the company is saying that it is confident that it will be able to continue to pay this commitment to shareholders.
"And when a company increases its dividend, the firm is saying that it believes the company’s future is strong enough to support an increase in shareholder cash flows.
"The three stocks profiled each meet the following criteria:
- All have yields of at least 2.2%.
- All have increased dividends every year for at least the last five years.
- All have 5-year annual dividend growth of at least 8%.
- All have Overall Quadrix® scores in the top quintile (above 80) in our Quadrix universe. Quadrix is my firm’s proprietary stock-ranking system that scores more than 4,000 stocks based on more than 100 different variables, such as Value, Quality, and Performance.
- All have direct-purchase plans whereby any investor may buy shares directly, the first share and every share.
"Aflac (NYSE: AFL), the insurance company, has an especially impressive record of dividend increases spanning more than a quarter century.
"The stock has come through a very tough patch for financials and should be among the sector’s leaders going forward. DRIP investors note that Aflac has a very user-friendly DRIP. Minimum initial investment is $1,000. There are no fees on the buy side.
"Medtronic (NYSE: MDT), a leader in medical-technology equipment, is another with an impressive dividend-growth record. Dividends have increased every year since the company initiated a dividend in 1977.
"Health-care stocks continue to feel investor uncertainty as a result of the looming health-care reform bill. Still, Medtronic offers a quality play in the field, and the company’s dividend-growth record is a bonus.
"The last stock I’ll mention here is Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL). The firm has paid a dividend every year since 1895 and has increased its dividend in each of the last 46 years.
"Colgate-Palmolive’s direct-purchase plan has a minimum initial investment of $500. There is a one-time enrollment fee of $10. Purchase fees are $2.50."
OncoGenex (OGXI): Targeting cancer treatment
"OncoGenex (NASDAQ:OGXI) is a development-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on new cancer therapies to address treatment resistance in cancer patients," says biotech expert John McCamant.
In his The Medical Technology Stock Letter, he explains, "The firm’s market cap is just under $225, which is extremely low for a cancer compound this far along in development." Here's his in-depth analysis.
"The company completed a reverse merger with Sonus Pharmaceuticals in August 2008 that resulted in OGXI becoming a publicly-traded company.
"Its lead product, OGX-011, has the potential to address very large market opportunities, including prostate and breast cancer.
"OGX-011 has completed five Phase 2 trials in prostate, breast and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), generating positive data to date, and is poised to enter two Phase 3 studies in first and second-line hormone refractory prostate cancer (HRPC).
"This lead drug candidate was in-licensed from ISIS who retains roughly 30% of OGX-011’s economics.
"The company’s current valuation of $215 million is providing a unique opportunity for a company with a drug development candidate that has delivered impressive randomized Phase 2 data showing a survival benefit in a major cancer market.
"We expect a partnership by year end which would allow the company to quickly start their Phase 3 trials for OGX-011 as they have already obtained special protocol agreements (SPAs) for both trials from the FDA.
"OGX-011 reduces the production of the protein clusterin which is believed to help cancer cells survive when treated with chemotherapy and is known to be present in a large number of tumor types.
"Data from the Phase 2 program have shown that adding OGX-011 to chemotherapy provides a survival advantage vs. chemotherapy alone in 1st-line HRPC treatment, provides better pain palliation in 2nd-line HRPC therapy, and appears to benefit NSCLC patients.
"We estimate the potential opportunity in the HRPC market alone could exceed $1 billion in sales if the drug were ultimately approved for both first- and second-line treatment and that additional indications may provide an even larger market opportunity.
"The most important data produced to date for OGX-011 is the randomized survival data obtained from the first-line HRPC trial. The trial showed that median overall survival was 23.8 months in patients receiving OGXI-011+ docetaxel/prednisone vs. 16.9 months for patients receiving docetaxel/prednisone alone.
"We believe, given the randomized structure of the study and the strength of the data, that the likelihood of success of OGX-011 is higher than a typical drug entering Phase 3.
"In addition, OGX-011 appears to have impacted pain palliation. In previous studies, only 22%-35% patients receiving first-line docetaxel therapy reported a reduction in pain.
"By comparison, 61% of patients receiving OGX-011+docetaxel reported durable pain responses in a second-line setting. Pain palliation is the primary end-point agreed to by the FDA for OGXI’s pivotal Phase 3 trial.
"Overall, given the strength of the data from the Phase 2 study, we believe the likelihood of success is relatively high compared with an average cancer drug entering Phase 3.
"We believe that the current valuation of OGXI is based solely on the probability of OGX-011 being approved for HRPC. However, OGXI has also produced attractive results in a Phase 2 trial in NSCLC, another large indication that could open up an additional multi-billion dollar market to OGX-011.
"Additionally, OGXI has four compounds in the pipeline that could increase in value as they move through clinical development.
"The most advanced of the four compounds is HsP27, is a heat shock protein, that has generated impressive Phase 1 data. HsP27 may have utility in prostate, breast, lung, ovarian, bladder, pancreas, and multiple myeloma.
"As a result, we believe investors could benefit from upside above our forecasts given the potential to expand OGX-011 into additional indications and the opportunities that may develop as the pipeline matures.
"OGXI has repeatedly stated it intends to license OGX-011 to a larger pharmaceutical company for commercialization before initiating the Phase 3 program as they currently don’t have a large enough cash position to do it alone.
"This makes good sense for OGX-011 shareholders as raising the required capital would extensively dilute current shareholders and partnering lowers the risks for the commercialization path for the company.
"A major partnership that provides OGXI with substantial upfront and milestone payments ($200+ million), and a royalty on future sales would be a big win for shareholders.
"We believe that a partnership would be a significant catalyst for the stock as it would validate the drug development candidate and eliminate the funding concern for the Phase 3 development program.
"Once the company has finalized a partnership, we believe it will move quickly to begin enrolling patients in its Phase 3 trials. Management has negotiated Special Protocol Assessments (SPAs) from the FDA for both of the planned Phase 3 trials.
"We expect OGXI to ink an attractive partnership for OGX-011 by year-end which would allow them to start Phase 3 as soon as 1Q2010. Both of these events should serve to drive OGXI’s share price higher. OGXI is a buy; our 18 month target for the stock is $75."
Select Healthcare: ‘One-stop shop’
"Healthcare is a core holding in our fund portfolios," says fund expert Jim Lowell. In The Fidelity Investor, he adds, "We own a healthy dose of Fidelity Select Health Care (FSPHX)."
"Traditionally, healthcare has served us well as both an anchor to windward and also as a way to generate real returns." Here are some highlights from his latest review of healthcare-related funds.
"My long-standing diagnosis is that healthcare remains a reliable cure for overall market volatility with organic and strategic upside growth potential.
"Of course, heathcare -- representing nearly 16% of our total GDP -- is unlike any other sector in the S&P. It is so diversified and global, so inter-related to technology, manufacturing, and R&D, so depending upon delivering real goods and services for consumer consumption, that it is almost an economy unto itself.
"Since 2000, Fidelity Select Healthcare has delivered a total return of 38.8% vs. a loss of 14.4% for the S&P 500. Up 24.2% year-to-dater, manager Eddie Yoon invests in the gamut of healthcare options: pharmaceuticals, biotech, medical equipment and systems, and HMOs.
"Investors looking for a one-stop healthcare shop should pick this option. The trumped up political crisis that has engendered a rush to 'cure' our healthcare system has done little to dent the fundamental reasons for keeping a core holding in healthcare now -- earnings growth, demographics and innovation.
"There's also a steady global market dose here; foreign stocks make up 13% of the holdings, but the companies that aren't listed as foreign still derive increasingly greater amounts of revenue from the burgeoning global marketplace.
Yoon's top holdings are Covidien, Pfizer, Medco Health, Allergan, Amgen, Illumina and Bard. It's diversification is a good prescription for risk."
e-Rewards, Inc. Reaches Agreement on the Terms of a Recommended Acquisition of Research Now PLC
DALLAS, TX--(Marketwire - October 23, 2009) - e-Rewards, Inc., the United States' largest online market research panel provider, today announced it has reached an agreement on the terms of a Recommended Acquisition of Research Now PLC, one of the research industry's leading international online fieldwork and panel firms. Research Now, an independent public company listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange, will become a wholly owned subsidiary of e-Rewards, Inc. upon completion of the transaction.
NuMobile, Inc. Announces Letter of Intent to Acquire SecurAct, Inc. to Add Identity Management Software to Growing Portfolio of Smartphone and Mobile Computing Solutions
CARY, NC--(Marketwire - October 23, 2009) - NuMobile, Inc. (